Tuesday, January 29, 2013

a look in on the nba (part 2)

sports:  In the first part of this post I covered the Eastern Conference.  Now it is time to talk about the West.  So lets dive right in by talking about the Lakers.  The Lakers have spent most of the season being nothing short of a disaster.  They are five games under 500 and up until their past few games have been struggling mightily under new coach Mike D'Antoni.  His high paced style seemed thoroughly exciting with the group of stars he has.  People like me who were looking forward to the D'Antoni era forgot that this team lacks some of the necessary pieces, such as a stretch player and some great outside shooters that would make his style work, not to mention the fact that age and fast paced styles typically don't go well together.  Dwight Howard has not been himself to this point in the season.  He still doesn't seem healthy and lacks the explosiveness to make a great impact on games, particularly on defense, despite his still solid numbers on offense (18 ppg and 12 rpg).  Pau Gasol has been taken out of his natural position as a post player and has been given the task of being their stretch player.  Along with his brother Marc, Pau may be the best passing big man in the league but that still doesn't change the fact that Pau is a center at heart (see the USA vs. Spain gold medal game when Pau torched the US for proof)  Up until the past few games there seemed to be little hope for the Lakers even making the playoffs despite their star studded lineup. Unless they can acquire some depth before the trade deadline that may still be the case despite Kobe Bryant's new found willingness to play the role of distributor.  Bryant has posted double digit assists in three straight games.  Whether this trend continues for Bryant or other changes that seem necessary get made, it is a long road to reaching the early season expectations for this team that seem destined now for no better than a first round exit at the hands of the West's number one seed.
That seed appears to be going to one of three teams.  The Oklahoma City Thunder have proven to be maybe the best team in league up to this point.  With the loss of James Harden in the trade to Houston, it was clear that Kevin Durant and Russel Westbrook would have to pick up a lot of the slack not just in their scoring but in other facets of their games as well.  They certainly have.  Durant and Westbrook have improved their assist and rebounding numbers to help fill out the team.  The continued growth of Serge Ibaka has also helped.  Ibaka has gone from a raw shot blocker to a reliable third scoring option and has remained stout on defense.  The addition of Kevin Martin, who came over in the Harden trade, has also helped.  His spot up shooting has provided the off the bench scoring that was going to be sorely missed in Harden's absence.  And with Durant and especially Westbrook willing to take on the roll of passers more often now, having a spot up shooter like Martin has filled out their roster in a very positive way.  I think it fair to say as well that the Thunder seem to have a different look to them last year.  Not only does the team look different, but they look different.  Gone are the affable smiles of young superstars.  Now we watch a team that has no interest in mercy as they keep a more serious tone between themselves as they make their way back to the match-up they in the finals they seem destined for.
The second team fighting for the top seed in the West is the Los Angeles Clippers.  With Chris Paul playing at an MVP level, he is leading this team to legit top flight status.  The addition of the bench players such as Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes and Eric Bledsoe have also added to the ferocity of this team.  With those three, along with Lamar Odom playing a more serviceable game than the one that got him kicked out of Dallas last year, the depth of this team has been one of its biggest advantages.  Their depth could also be the difference maker moving forward.  While DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin are fun to watch and very talented players, the Clippers lack depth on their front line.  This especially shows late in games when you have Jordan, one of the leagues worst freethrow shooters, and Griffin, who is below average, which leaves Odom as their lone big late in close games.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Clippers use their depth to acquire a serviceable big to come off the bench alongside Odom by way of unloading from their plethora of scoring guards.  Make no mistake that this team is as good as any, but if that hole gets filled and the chemistry remains, this is a team that can win this year.  Unlike last year when they felt a year or two a way, now they are just a player away and then there might not be anymore waiting in Lob City.
The third contending team in the West is the San Antonio Spurs.  It is really hard to talk about the Spurs despite their greatness.  The Spurs have the second best record in the West but have done so in their typically quiet way.  As people continue to question their age and stamina, Tim Duncan is having one his best statistical years in recent memory.  Tony Parker is once again playing as well as anybody in the league while being largely overlooked as the league's MVP.  With Manu Ginobli recently back from injury, the growth of untradable young talent like Danny Green and Kawaii Leonard, Greg Popovich (the best coach in the game and a top five or six coach of all time) has his team showing they aren't too old to make another title run.  The one concern for the Spurs is that in recent years they seem to have run out of steam in the playoffs.  That may happen again.  But no one will know till we get there.
The only team in the West with a real chance to make waves against the top three teams seems to be the Memphis Grizzlies.  Despite the fact that Rudy Gay has regressed this year, shooting in the low 40s, this team does pose a huge match-up issue for teams.  With Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph down low and Mike Conley and Gay on the outside, this is a team that is very difficult to stop.  They have proven this with wins at one time or another this season against just about every good team in the league from Miami to New York, to Chicago to Oklahoma City.  All it would take for this team to strike fear into their opponents as they head into the playoffs would be some dominant play from Gasol and Randolph (which they have been getting most of the year anyways) and Gay to get hot at the right time and carry the scoring load.  If that happens they are capable of beating anyone.  But until they show they can do it consistently, they appear to be on the outside looking in.
Beyond that the West is riddled with middling teams like the Rockets who are still growing and looking to improve and the Timberwolves who had a chance to be this years darlings untill their injury problems snowballed.  The Denver Nuggets have proven to be a tough out on most nights, but in a playoff series where the game always slows down, they lack a player they can go to and a defense that can lock down on command.  The top heavy Western Conference will surely be a great race for the top seed and home court advantage.  With such great talent atop the conference that could prove to be the difference.

Monday, January 28, 2013

a look in on the NBA

sports:  My laziness seems to be a good omen for these basketball posts.  My plan was to write this sometime last week as the NBA regular season approached its halfway point.  That didn't happen and now the halfway has past by a game or two for most teams.  And yet again, my laziness was rewarded with something significant happening that completely altered the way I view the league.  First it was a one game late playoff preview that allowed me to comment on Derrick Rose's torn ACL, then it was waiting till the last possible second to do a season preview and getting to see the James Harden trade go down.  This time it was the Rajon Rondo injury.  And with that we begin with the East.
The Eastern Conference has been shaping up to be a lot more compelling than anyone thought.  The Miami Heat are still the best team in the conference.  Lebron James is still the best player in the league.  He is leading is team to the best record in the East while putting up staggering numbers.  He leads his team in points, assists, rebounds, and steals while shooting 55% from the field.  This is on top of the fact that he has not missed a game after being the only player to play all 66 games last year and make a championship run and play in the Olympics.  The team has been built around him in the fashion we saw in the Finals last year and thought they would play this year.  Spreading the floor with stretch bigs and shooters spacing the floor while James either runs point or plays out of the post while Dwayne Wade slashes towards the basket on cuts.  They have however shown signs of weakness.  They are only 10-10 on the road, which could be cause for concern in the playoffs if they happen to slip up and lose one at home.  The other area of concern for the Heat is that they have been a terrible rebounding team.  The Heat have been so bad in fact that if nothing changes and they win the title they would qualify as the worst rebounding championship team ever if they were to go all the way again.  While this was a concern last year and they still were champs, it is worth noting that there has actually been regression in this area that could cause problems especially against the other top teams in the east all of whom have very good rebounding bigs in their lineups(Noah, Garnett, Chandler, Hibbert, Smith and Horford).
Ok, now back to the Rondo injury.  It was reported on Sunday that Rajon Rondo has torn his ACL and will miss the rest of this season.  The Boston Celtics have certainly not been their typically stellar selves this year.  They are under 500 as I write this and are currently eighth in the East.  But with Rondo leading the league in assists and triple-double games he changes the potential narrative for this team.  With the Celtics holding the eighth seed, they would be matched up against the Heat in the first round.  Between the fact that Boston is not afraid of the Heat and the fact that Rondo is capable of going off for 40 points, up until yesterday this was a team that had the chance to pull an upset in the first round.  The Celtics have not been a great offensive team for the past couple of years (they rank 25th in offensive efficiency this year), but without Rondo in the lineup the Celtics now appear to either be just another sacrificial bottom seed or a team that is going to blow up what they have by getting rid of their aging stars and looking towards the future by picking up as many expiring contracts as they can so that they can rebuild in the off season.
The way I see it there are two other real threats to Miami in the East.  The first would be the New York Knicks.  The Knicks are currently second in the East and playing as well as anyone could have hoped.  Carmelo Anthony has put himself in the MVP discussion by accepting his role at power forward and really taking on the identity of James in Miami.  Melo plays out of the post more now and uses a spread out of floor full of three point shooters to pass to if the defense collapses.  The big difference in New York is that Tyson Chandler has continued to show that he is one of the best (if not the best) pick and roll center in the league.  With his amazing 67% field goal percentage, he allows the Knicks to run a wildly effective pick and roll game when not going to Anthony in the post that centers around guards Ray Felton and Jason Kidd with Chandler rolling to the basket and the shooters lying in wait.  Add to that efficient style of play that they have Melo to go to in late game situations to create on his own and you have a team that despite their slower pace and age is definitely for real.  And if Amar'e Staudemire continues to accept his role as sixth man, things could get even better for the Knicks heading forward.
The other threat to Miami could be the Chicago Bulls.  With Derrick Rose still out and a revamped supporting cast after losing a lot of their bench last season, Tom Thibideau has the Bulls in a place that very few expected them to be entering the year.  They are atop the Central Division and in the three seed with Rose's return in sight.  No one knows what Rose will look like when he returns, but with the emergence of new players like Jimmy Butler and Danillo Balinelli and the continued improvement of Luol Deng and Jokim Noah, there is certainly a lot of hope in Chicago.  Thibideau has the team playing its usual elite defense while the offense continues to do enough to win.  If Rose comes back anywhere his old form the production he will provide as well as taking some of the pressure of the players that are forced to carry heavier production than they are used to this team could be right back where they were when he go hurt last year: ready to take on the Heat for top dog status in the East.  Most people, myself included, hoped the Bulls would tread water until Rose came back.  With them doing more than that all bets are officially off.
There certainly are other teams in the East that have had good seasons.  The Indiana Pacers are right back in the thick of things, chasing the Bulls for the top spot in the Central Division.  The Atlanta Hawks have exceeded a lot of expectations with stellar team play on offense and a surprisingly great defense.  The Brooklyn Nets have more than met expectations.  Darron Williams has only gotten better as the season has progressed after a slow start and Brook Lopez has lived up to his new contract with an all-star level season.  Each of these teams have issues though that could keep them from being legit contenders.  Atlanta and Indiana both seem like they are still a player away offensively, both needing a scorer who can get to the free throw line with regularity.  As far as the Nets go, I just am not willing to put my eggs in a basket led by someone like Williams who continues to get his coaches fired.  I just can't bet on a team lead by a guy who is earning a reputation as a coach killer.
With the trade deadline approaching in a few weeks there is certainly a lot that can happen to change the complexion of the Eastern Conference.  But right now it seems that Rondo's ACL tear has made this a three team race.  While I still think that Miami is the best team in the conference and should emerge as its finals representative, there is one thing that could trip them up from both New York and Chicago.  Neither of these teams should go into a series afraid of the Heat.  Over the past few years, Rose's Bulls have shown that they can beat Miami, including a road win in Miami this year without Rose.  His return should only bolster their confidence.  The Knicks will also not be afraid, having already beat the Heat by more than twenty points twice this year, once in Miami.  That was always the x-factor with Boston; they believed they could beat the Heat.  Now there seem to be teams that believe they can do it in their place.
(part two:  Western Conference coming tomorrow)

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

the following

tv:  Last night on FOX the new show The Following aired its pilot.  There was a lot of talk about this show leading up to its airing.  This show was being talked about as the first network show to approach the kind of excellent and envelope pushing dramas we see on cable such as Breaking Bad, Dexter, Mad Men, Game Of Thrones, and many others.  It was supposed to be a new look for network television; more violent, more intense subject matter, better acting (they got Kevin Bacon!) and just a general jump into the realm of cable drama for a network.
The Following is a serial killer drama about FBI detective Ryan Hardy, played by Bacon, who is out of work when the show picks up but is called back in to help with a manhunt.  The hunt is for that of killer Joe Carroll, whom Hardy caught once before but is now escaped from prison.  The first episode follows Hardy as he tracks down his nemesis and ends with him catching him.  Carroll then tells Hardy that there is greater scheme at work since he developed a cult following (hence the title, clever eh?) that is going to continue to kill in his place and force and very Lecter/Clarice through the glass wall relationship between he and Hardy.  Thus the show now seems as if it will be about Hardy and the FBI tracking down these cult members who are disciples of Carrolls while following his breadcrumb clues.
I suppose this seems like a decent enough idea.  Bacon is a good actor (anyone laughing right now shouldn't, I dare you to find one movie he's ever been in where you think "man Kevin Bacon sucked"). The serial killer drama could be fertile ground for a good show, especially one on a network looking to establish itself as on par with the cable channels given its subject matter.
But it just didn't quite get there.  The show was certainly more violent than anything that has ever been shown on network.  It was also dark enough and had a few moments of genuine suspense to make viewers jump.  But watching the pilot, there became on very glaring place in which this was still just another show that can't live up to its piers.  And that was in the pilot itself.
The pilot begins with Carroll's prison break and Hardy rolling out of bed to a water bottle full of vodka and ends with the capture of Carroll and his monologue about his followers that set up the rest of the series.  I know this may be holding certain shows to an impossibly high standard, but if this were Breaking Bad that would have been the entire first season.  We would have gotten a full hour devoted to how prison break happened that established Carroll's being a criminal mastermind and the out of control life of Hardy before he got dragged back in.  Then a few more episodes devoted to the sudden emergence of Carroll's followers while Hardy picks his investigation and reestablishes relationships with people from his past rather than doing flashback shortcuts.  The rest of the story would have continured till the moment we were floored by the fact that the show going into its second season was going to be about something entirely different from what we had seen which was the story of the manhunt.  Instead, creator Kevin Williamson and FOX decided to write the same old episode we have seen before a hundred times and have discarded nearly that many.
Forget the mind numbing literary themes that the writers bullshit their way through as Carroll's motivations for being a killer that are so unoriginal that a shitty John Cusack movie was made about them last year (really?  The Raven?).  The Following just failed to deliver on its promise of being the cable show on network television.  Despite the fact that FOX is airing the show in fifteen episode seasons.  I think they are only doing that because that's how the networks that win all the awards are doing it, just like they made it more violent because these cable shows are bloodier than what they show.  But it seems like everyone missed the most important aspect of these shows.
Breaking Bad isn't what it is because the characters can swear or because of drugs and violence.  It is great because it takes its time.  Taking its time does not mean slow.  It means that it is willing to not rush itself so that it can imbed the kind of detail that allows you to have a perfect grasp of everything going on in the world you are asked to inhabit.  To show you a killer at work and to show how broken a man can really be in this specific case.  Despite it not being my favorite part of the show, Breaking Bad is what it is because it was willing to spend eight gut-wrenching, borderline unwatchable hours with Walt dealing with his cancer before deciding to get involved in the drug game.  It later spent a whole episode drawing out every detail of a train heist that is one of the great capers caught on film.
My hope for The Following is that years from now it will be viewed as the stepping stone for a brighter future for networks where they realized that they were capable of making shows that compete with cable.  But until they realize that the attention to detail and willingness to take their time is where these great shows stand out for their great story telling and not in their shock factor, they will be nothing more than a stepping stone, they will never be the great show they aspired to be.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

the championship games

sports:  After a lack luster week of wild card playoff games, there were high hopes for the NFL divisional playoff round.  And it certainly delivered.
The Saturday games were nothing short of breathtaking as Baltimore beat Denver on the road in a game that went into its sixth quarter.  The two teams matched each other point for point the entire game.  Ultimately though it was a few fatal mistakes from the Broncos that made the difference in the game.  The first came when Raheem Moore let Jacoby Jones get behind him on a play with only a few about forty seconds left in the fourth quarter when only a deep pass could push the game to overtime and prevent the Broncos from losing.  The next mistake came on the ensuing drive when Denver opted to take a knee and go to overtime with thirty seconds left and two timeouts.  I'm not saying that the Broncos would have won the game inevitably, but basic intuition says it would have been worth it to run at least a play or two and see if you could begin to drive the ball towards field goal position.  The final mistake came when Peyton Manning through a bad pass running right across his body for an interception.  Unfortuantely that pass is probably what will be most remembered since it lead to the game winning field goal, but it was one in a series of mistakes that lead to the loss.
In the other game in the AFC the Patriots took care of business with a convincing win over the Houston Texans.  Despite their dominance throughout the game and one of the all time great passes on deep route from Brady to Shane Vareen, New England lost two of their key offensive weapons in the game.  Rob Gronkowski and Julian Eddleman are now out.
So who wins this match-up?  The Ravens appear to have that team of destiny feel feeding off the inspiration of knowing that Ray Lewis is going to retire.  They are also playing to their strengths.  The defense has been good but not great and oppertunistic.  The offense has been as good as we've seen all year using the effective deep passing of Joe Flacco and the running/screen passing game with Ray Rice.  The fact that these are the Ravens strengths this season is no mystery, the fact that they have not used them consistantly this season (particularly on offense), is.  Conventional wisdom says that if the Ravens stick to this game plan against the Patriots they should be fine.  The Patriots, however, are not the same team that Baltimore beat earlier in the season.  The Pats' defense has improved over the course of the season, especially in the passing game since the acquisition of Aquib Talib.  That game back in week three was also heavily influenced by the replacement refs and a bizarre game winning field goal that involved the discussion of never ending goal posts.  In the end the Patriots win thanks to their improved defense and the lack of terrible officiating while playing at home.  And despite their losses on offense due to injury, this is a team that has historically adjusted well to that under Belichek by being able to plug well prepared, game ready players into their system.
The NFC championship match-up comes with a lot of the same prefacing.  The Atlanta Falcons won a tight game in the final thirty seconds thanks in large part to some horrible coverage by the Seattle defense.  The Niners on the other hand won their game against the Packers in stunning fashion, behind an historic night from quarterback Colin Kapernick, in pretty dominant fashion.  This game also comes with a few more if ands and buts attatched to it.  San Fransisco is heavily favored this week based largely on their performance against the Green Bay.  They certainly are not an easy out given the second ranked defense they bring into the game along with the ever evolving offense lead by Kapernick.  But without that game by Kapernick (280+  passing yards and 180+ rushing yards), the game would be viewed as a closer match-up.  And Kapernick is sure to regress at least a little bit.  Atlanta still seems to be the same team we thought they were (shout out to Denny Green) before their win against the Seahawks.  They had a big lead, gave up a big lead, and one with a great game winning drive at the end, still not looking dominant.  The talk after the game despite having lost was still about how awesome Seattle was.  Having got the monkey off their back of winning a playoff game, I don't know if Atlanta is still the "nobody believes in us team."  They also have match-up issues with the Niners.  San Fransisco's one weakness on defense is slot receivers.  That would put the success of the team on Harry Douglas's shoulders.  While he is a serviceable reciever, Wes Welker he is not.  The Falcons should also have a hard time uinning on San Fran the way they did on Seattle.  They have also allowed lots of yards against teams who run the read option like Carolina and the Seattle team they played last week.  What this game will probably ulitmately come down to is whether the Falcons offensive line can give Matt Ryan enough time to let plays develop down field for Roddy White and Julio Jones.  If that doesn't happen, the Falcons have next to no shot.  I said in week one after the Niners beat Green Bay that they were the best team in football, and despite some of their ups and downs I think I stand by that fact.  Despite that, the Falcons home field advantage, which is almost as good as Seattle's and that late game cool from Matt Ryan comes through.  Atlanta finally makes the adjustments to the read-option and finds a way to contain San Fransisco's offense.  A few big plays from Jones and White later and the other Matt Ice, Matt Bryant, is kicking another game winning field goal.  The Falcons go to the Super Bowl setting up another game between the Patriots and a "nobody believes in us" team.

Monday, January 14, 2013

girls season 2

tv:  The first season of Girls, which aired last spring, was one of the most talked about shows on television at the time.  There was a ton of controversy surrounding the show.  Writer/creator/lead actress Lena Dunham came under fire for her portrayal of the the characters on the show as well as her willingness to do nude scenes(and a few other things).  There was also at times a sense that the show was not reaching its full potential.  In a lot of ways the show mirrored its characters in that way.  It was the story of four girls who are friends trying to find their way after college to the the stability of adulthood and what is like to not know what the next step is or how exactly to achieve.  The first season of Girls was thoroughly enjoyable as we watched the show evolve and try new things as Lena Dunham tried to find her voice and the voices of the characters.
The second season premiered last night and showed that things have definitely changed.  Dunham seems to now know what the show is.  The episode was smooth and funny and at times heartfelt and most of all portrayed a level of confidence in what the show is.
The episode began with a quick glimpse in on the lives of our main characters and where they are in their lives that reintroduces everyone perfectly.  We see Marnie getting the bad news that the art gallery she is working at is downsizing (a lovely euphemism for "you're fired") only to be told by her now former boss that she is super pretty and smart and that she'll land on her feet.  I need take a minute to comment on how that is one of the most interesting moments of the episode just because of the way that line is delivered.  It is said as if being super pretty supersedes Marnie's being smart because that is what is said first, something that young women probably get all the time - "oh you're pretty don't worry.  Life will be good."  But as we see with Marnie as the episode unfolds, things are not quite so good.  Luckily for her Dunham writes that as funny instead of sad.  OK enough of that.  Shoshanna is spreading herbs and incense while asking whoever it is that she is asking that Ray, one Girls best guys, be smote for ditching her after what we now know was a one night stand and not the beginning of a relationship.  And then we meet Hannah, on top of the new man in her life, played by Donald Glover who is an excellent addition to the cast after his work in Community 
As the episode progresses we see how Hannah's new relationship is complicated by her guilt over her boyfriend from last year, the sometimes loved but always interesting Adam, getting hit by a car while they were fighting.
While Dunham allowed the show to pick up plots that followed up on the questions that arose after the season one finale, the plot is almost secondary in what made this episode so enjoyable to watch.  It was more that confidence that I referred to.  It is hard to explain what exactly I mean by that, but there is just something that happens with certain shows when they find their voice and realize their capabilities. The episodes seem to have a certain swagger, within the quality and creativity, about them that says that everyone involved knows how good the show they are making is.  That was what watching Girls first episode back was like.  There was no more trying to figure things out.  There was no inconsistency in the way the story was told or the quality of the episodes.  It was just damn good, and in a way that one would expect to continue.  The story was both fun and heartfelt.  The humor was quicker in every possible way as I found myself laughing harder and more often this time around.  Those real life moments in the show that Dunham has been praised for being able to adapt to scrips were no longer just real but hysterical. 
And now its time to talk about the choice to bring back Andrew Rannells character Elijah, Hannah's gay ex-boyfriend, as her roommate replacing Marnie.  Rannells career has been a bit up and down in the past year or two.  He burst on to the scene as the lead in the musical The Book Of Mormon created by Trey Parker and Matt Stone and instantly endeared himself to anyone who saw it.  Then he decided to do The New Normal, a show by Ryan Murphy that is on the long list of recent NBC failures.  His turn as Elijah, which was fun but really forgettable in the first season, is officially a highlight of the show as he storms the first episode back as yet another force set to create chaos in Hannah's life while bringing some of the episodes funniest moments.  As long as Rannell's cosmic awesomeness continues to be a part of the series, it appears that only good things can happen for everyone involved.
While the girls on the show still seem to be exactly that, making questionable decisions about the course of their lives as they think only of themselves while claiming that their actions are self-sacrificing, Girls has now officially grown into its adulthood.  The style and quality and confidence that shows that it knows who it is, showing that it can be a long term, stable part of someones life.  Fortunately for those of us who need a laugh from time to time, the characters are nowhere near there yet.

Friday, January 11, 2013

picking the divisional games

sports:  After a week of more or less underwhelming games in the wild card round of the NFL playoffs, we are now on to the next round.  This weekends games seem to have to potential for much more intrigued than last weeks games (I have a feeling that a healthy RGIII would have all but undone everything I just wrote).
In the first game of the week, on Saturday afternoon the Denver Broncos play the Baltimore Ravens.  These two teams played each other back in week fifteen and it was fairly one sided.  The Ravens lost 34-17 in a game that wasn't even that close with Baltimore scoring two touchdowns in garbage time late in the game.  Baltimore looked impressive in their win against the Colts last weekend.  Their defense was solid.  They got pressure on the quarterback and did well stopping the run.  The Ravens offense did a great job of playing to its strengths running screens to Ray Rice and using their deep ball passing game to take care of the Colts in the second half.  Their are causes for concern though if you like the Ravens.  They were helped by a lot of dropped balls by the Colts that may have made their pass defense look better than it was.  The main cause for concern though is simply the Broncos.  Peyton Manning will be a more formidable opposing quarterback.  The Ravens passing game should have a much tougher time breaking big plays against the Denver secondary led by future hall of famer Champ Bailey.  Also the Denver defensive front line led by Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil will do a much better job of both disrupting the passing attack and containing Ray Rice.  Even though rematches often favor the loser because it is easier to adjust to what you did wrong than what you did right, the Broncos are just better.  Denver wins at home in a closer game than we saw in week fifteen.
The second Saturday game is the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Green Bay Packers.  It is so hard to pick against the Niners.  I said after week one when they thrashed the Packers that they looked like not only the best but the scariest team in football.  I guess the thing is that they still are capable of looking that way but don't all the time.  Also I just don't know if I think Colin Kapernick is ready yet.  Kapernick is a fantastic young quarterback with virtually limitless ceiling but after starting only half the season after he took over for Alex Smith, and given what we have seen from him in other big games (Seahawks, Patriots, and even the Rams game when they had a chance to avenge their tie), it is possible that he might not be ready yet to take the next step.  And for those who believe that the Niners can win with their defense, that theory seems to hinge largely on how healthy Justin Smith is when he takes the field.  Their pass rush just has not been the same without him.  The Patriots game turned on a dime when he left the game and former sack machine Aldon Smith has not recorded a single sack in Justin's absence.  The Packers on the other hand seem to be heading on a total upward trajectory.  With their thrashing of the Vikings last week, we may have finally seen the real Packers.  Aaron Rogers, a quarterback who has been there and proven himself ready in the past with an MVP and a Super Bowl, now has healthy receiving corps - something he has not had all season.  Their defense is also healthy for the first time in a long time.  Clay Mathews and Charles Woodson will be back  after both missed significant time with injuries.  We have been waiting all year for a mojo team.  With the Packers getting healthy on both sides of the ball at the right time of the year they may just be it.  Aaron Rodgers is too good.  Kapernick is not ready.  Green Bay wins.
The first game of Sunday may be the most interesting game of the weekend.  The Atlanta Falcons host the Seattle Seahawks.  Seattle seems like a nightmare match-up for the Falcons.  The Falcons don't defend the run very well and with Marshown Lynch and Russell Wilson the Seahawks are a very good running team.  Seattle also has two big, fast, physical cornerbacks that can match up with Roddy White and Julio Jones, the Falcons two superstar receivers.  Seattle has also turned into a darling pick after their incredible run to end the season in which they went on a record scoring pace.  They also looked mighty impressive in the win last week against the Redskins, though one can only wonder at the outcome if Robert Griffin had been healthy.  The Falcons on the other hand seem to have everything working against them.  The match-up seems bad.  They have gotten themselves to the number one seed in the NFC with a lot of narrow wins against poor teams and one butt kicking of the Saints.  But with Tony Gonzalez they do have a counter to the defense against their wide receivers in their passing game.  And don't forget that Matt Ryan is not only a top ten quarterback but also has a near flawless track record at home.  This might be one of the best "nobody believes in us" teams in recent memory.  I think the Falcons use that as motivation and the team brings their A game.  The fairy tale ends for Seattle as Atlanta pulls of a "shocker" by defeating a five seed at home as a one seed.
And now we come to the final game of the weekend:  Patriots vs. Texans.  This one unfortunately seems like it should be much of the same thing as their meeting earlier in the year when New England took care of business in a 42-14 blowout.  Houston has not looked like the dominant team they were earlier in the year through the final weeks of the regular season and certainly didn't look convincing eking out a win against a Bengals team that played poorly(that word is pretty generous by the way) in the wild card round.  The only hope for the Texans is that Patriots repeat the recent history they have of not coming out in a playoff rematch with the same fire that allowed them to crush a team earlier in the year.  That seems unlikely though with the Patriots ever improving defense, the fact that they will have both of their superstar tight ends on the field in this game(they were missing Gronk for the in week fourteen), and the fact that Houston just kind of is who they are.  As good as they have been this year, they are not a team that is going to show you a whole new look, they run the ball well off of stretch plays and use play action to open up the passing game.  Unless Houston can reinvent themselves on the fly while finding a way to slow down the Pats offense, New England wins.
There you have it.  I just have to say that I am really enjoying writing these previews.  Can't wait to do it again next weekend.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

silver linings playbook

movies:  Thanks to the fact that its limited release about a month ago and the wide release not coming till last weekend I was not able to get to see Silver Linings Playbook until now, which means that my gushing is coming a little late.  But after seeing it this afternoon I just don't care.
  This movie is the story of a bipolar man named Pat, played by Bradley Cooper, who comes home from a mental institution where he was sent after a violent episode when he caught his wife cheating.  It is a romantic comedy written and directed by David O'Russell about Pat's recovery while he is living with his parents in Philadelphia and spending time with his new friend Tiffany played by Jennifer Lawrence.  Tiffany, while aiding Pat in his attempt to get better, is dealing with her own issues.  She has been medicated and making bad decisions while lost in depression after the death of her husband.  Over the course of the movie the two find a way to make their differences work and find themselves feeling something for each other.
The plot of this movie is secondary in its brilliance though.  The first bit of brilliance comes in the form of O'Russell.  His writing and directing have to be given a lot of the credit for what elevates this film beyond typical rom-com status.  He did two very smart things with this movie.  The first was to not shy away from the two main characters problems, particularly Pat's.  It is not just that O'Russell makes it such a prevalent part of the character as it oozes from every word and tick in Cooper's performance, its that it was allowed to be debilitating   There are times, and more than a few of them, that watching Pat struggle through various scenarios and lose control was difficult and sad.  Not cry at Anne Hathaway's singing sad, but just sad because of the realization of how big a challenge it is for him to maintain any level of normalcy and self control.  Watching this movie do that greatly marginalized other movies we've seen in recent years (Friends With Benefits, Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes) where we see characters with illnesses be a source of unexpected morality when characters have a moment of clarity right when they needed to in order to make the climactic point of a movie.  Pat, on the other hand, was more inclined to be at his worst at most of the moments where he had a chance to be his best.
The other great thing O'Russell did with Silver Linings was to go big and obvious with the metaphors.  There were some wonderful moments where we saw moments in the movies act as a reflection for Pat's mania.  The easiest was the big dance number at the end (yes there is a dance number, just go with it).  The music and movement of it, while call backs to earlier parts of the movie, was the definition of Pat's disorder as it moved from slow and calm to pure mania and back again.  The other metaphors were those we saw in the other characters.  As Pat's friend Ronnie tries to tell him about how he goes into his garage to beat on things and throw things to relieve the anger of his marriage or his father (a wonderful turn by Robert DeNiro) lets all rationality go as he tries to find the blend of superstitions required for his beloved Eagles to win any game, we see how truly mad we all are and that is not just those on prescription medication.  These ideas were big and obvious and perfectly constructed for a thoughtful romantic comedy.  O'Russel clearly knew he had something to say and yet also had the presence of mind to know he wasn't doing on something like Mad Men or wanting to make his viewers dig their way though The Master.  Its a rom-com.  Its fine do make your smart a little plain to the eye.
If you're wondering what really made this movie though, it was Jennifer Lawrence.  I am not even going begin trying to use my own superlatives for her performance (OK, that's probably a lie), but I am going to leave it to Zach Baron from Grantland:  "I mean, she is Godzilla stomping a building, she is a Just Blaze beat, she is all the natural disasters at once."  That about sums it up.  You could maybe say something about how she is a little too young to be playing a widow.  But who really cares?  It's a rom-com.  And no one at any age could have done with that role what she did.  She attacked the role, and sometimes it literally felt like an attack, with such a ferocity.  Watching her manage all of the madness around her, whether it be her fake attempt to help Pat fix his failed marriage or her rattling off of Eagles highlights to annihilate the superstitions of his father, while maintaining a certain level of her own mania was two hours of pure joy.  Watching Jennifer Lawrence was one of those rare moments where you realize that you are probably going to watch a movie a lot more times for a specific performance.   Yes the movie was good.  But she was all of things Mr. Baron stated and more.
I have had a few discussions with friends of mine about male actors in Hollywood and the fact that there seems to be a lack of young male movie stars and leads that seem to be ready to step in and be a bright future for movies.   Sure there are good actors like Aaron Paul or Armie Hammer, but not a whole lot of leads and movie star types.  There does however seem to be a bright future for young women though.  With people like Carey Mulligan and Jessica Chastain and Rooney Mara and Mia Wasikowska the future seems very bright.  But after being wowed by her charisma in Hunger Games (despite being underwhelmed by the movie itself) and now head over heels after seeing Silver Linings, Lawrence might be the brightest part of that future.  
After the past few weeks filled getting caught up on cable TV shows and Oscar contenders, Silver Linings Playbook did not only what I hoped it would do but also what Pat was asking for early in the movie.  It showed that sometimes that its OK to have a happy ending in such a hard cold world, and that those happy endings should be enjoyed.  

Friday, January 4, 2013

the wild card round

sports:  It has been a longer than expected winter break in my writing.  There was just an awful lot going on outside of the world which I write about.  Then I started battling a vicious cold.  Despite still being a bit under the weather I am going to do a brief (because of the cold, otherwise I'd probably go nuts) preview of the games that start Saturday afternoon and end Sunday evening.
It is kind of surprising how intriguing all of these match-ups have the potential to be.  There do not appear to be any runaway favorites in any of the four games this weekend.  So let's just go in order and see what's up.  The first game of the weekend in the AFC six seed Cincinnati Bengals vs. the Houston Texans.  In a lot of ways this one appears to be one sided.  The Texans have been by far and away the better team all year.  They have a balanced offense with Arian Foster running the ball and the use of play action in the passing game freeing  up wide receiver Andre Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels.  The Texans also have a tough defense led by J.J. Watt's dominant season on their defensive line (I'm not going to say to much about Watt.  Just look it all up.  There are too many superlatives for his play this year.).  The Bengals on the other hand have gotten into the playoffs based on the strengths people believed they would have when the year began.  The Andy Dalton to A.J. Green duo on offense is one of the best quarterback reciver tandoms in the league.  Their defense has also been very solid, and although it was once thought to not have a true star, Geno Atkins has emerged on their line as a true star and leader.  The Bengals could put a scare in the Texans if Green has a huge game and can break open for a few touchdowns.  Also the Texans have been in a slump and not playing their best football in recent weeks.  This one should, however, be won by the better team, and that is Houston.
The other Saturday game is a rematch of week seventeen between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings.  This is really one of the simpler games of the weekend.  The Packers don't really match-up well against the Vikings because they struggle with the two things that the Vikings do well.  The Packers have a tough time against teams with good pass rushes and and are near the bottom of the league in rushing defense.  The Vikings on the other hand will have major issues if they fall behind early and have to put the ball in Christian Ponders hands.  Also, in a rematch, it is much harder to defend a win than even the score, or so a boxer would tell you.  And that puts the difficulty of maintaining excellence against the Packers' adjustments and an angry Aaron Rodgers on the Vikings.  And if it doesn't go without saying, playing in Green Bay in January sucks for dome teams, even ones from Minnesota.  Look for The Pack to take care of business.  But if Adrian Peterson has another one of those games he's had so many of this year, all bets are off.
The first of the two Sunday games is the Indianapolis Colts vs. the Baltimore Ravens.  This game seems to be all Baltimore on paper.  The Ravens have the experience, a great running back in Ray Rice, a solid defense, and are very good at home.  The Colts on the other hand are a team overloaded with youth and inexperience.  They also have a point differential in the regular season (-30) that shows they are winning a ton of close games and getting blown out in losses, a stat that typically doesn't bode will for teams in the playoffs.  This, however, is the game in which stats and experience may fly out the window.  The Ravens have been shaky at best on their way to winning the AFC East, being beneficiaries of the replacement refs and never ending goal posts against the Patriots and Ray Rice's fourth and 26 miracle run on a dump off pass that was one of the worst passes of the year (honestly, who throws a shoe, sorry, I meant a two yard check down on fourth and 26 late in the fourth quarter of a game you are losing.  Thank god Ray Rice didn't want to lose as bad as Joe Flacco did.)  The Colts on the other hand have Chuckstrong.  And now that Pagano is back on the sidelines the inspiration is just overwhelming.  Chuckstrong holds out for one more week against a Flacco that is hard to believe in.  Luck gets it done!  Chuckstrong!  Plus who doesn't want to see Colts vs. Peyton Manning next week?
The final game of weekend is between the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Redskins.  This should be quite a game.  We have two dynamic rookie quarterbacks going at in Robert Griffin and Russel Wilson.  These two run a read option based attack that allows them to take advantage of their running skills while surveying the field to make the best possible decisions.  Griffin has been the most exciting player in football this year running this offense while Wilson has grown into a leader and great quarterback doing the same.  It is really hard to handicap these two offenses going against each other since they are so similar and have both been so good.  The difference in this game should come on defense where Seattle has been outstanding all season.  Look for their huge and athletic corners can lock down the Redskins wide receivers while their line does the hard work of containing Griffin.  Despite their .500 road record, Seattle will cool off the red hot Redskins (seven straight wins) and advance to take on the Falcons.  This of course is assuming that neither Wilson nor Griffin play like rookies, which they haven't all season.  But the playoffs are a bit different.
So their you have it, the opening weekend of the playoffs as I see it.  So much for being brief.  Now I guess its time to go.  I'm tired, I'm sick, and I hope I just did better with this wild card round than I did in baseball.