Friday, March 29, 2013

mlb preview part one: the national league

sports:  With opening day approaching it is time to talk some baseball.  Time to talk about the teams potentials outcomes and the effects that certain players will have on them.  Today, in part one of my Major League Baseball preview, we will be taking a look at the National League.
We will begin out west.  The NL West could prove to be one of the most fascinating divisions in baseball.  Whether it is that competitive will remain to be seen, but it should be interesting.  The world champion San Francisco Giants bring backs the lions share of their roster from last year.  This does largely appear to be a very promising thing.  Led by last years MVP Buster Posey, the offense looks to be about on par with last years which was clearly good enough even though not great.  Pablo Sandoval should continue to be strong in the middle of the lineup despite his occasional lack of consistency.   Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford showed enough promise last year to expect the two of them to improve this year, and a whole year of Hunter Pence will provide great stability in the five spot behind Posey and Sandoval.  The only real area for concern in Marco Scutaro.  It would be no surprise if Scutaro had a serviceable year as the teams second basemen, but there is sure to be some considerable regression from the otherworldly run he had late last season and into the playoffs when he was hitting over .400 and over .500 with runners in scoring position.  The real strength of the Giants though will once again be their pitching.  With Cy Young candidate Matt Cain at the top of rotation and the same depth behind him that brought home the World Series last year, there is no reason not to believe that this will be one of the best staffs in baseball again.  And if Tim Lincecum has a bounce back year, that already great staff will be even better.  The Giants best competition should come from the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have been on an historic spending spree the past year.  Bringing in a ton of huge contracts at the end of last year in one of the biggest trades ever.  That trade brought in Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Adrian Gonzalez.  Then in the off season they brought in Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins.  The Dodgers still have Matt Kemp anchoring their lineup as one of the best hitters in the game and former Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw at the top of their rotation.  It will be very difficult to predict how the Dodgers will fare this season.  The difference between being merely competitive and a true contender will hinge on whether or not all of the players they brought in live up to their enormous contracts or not.  But then again, if they don't the Dodgers may just spend more money and bring in more players to try and right the ship.  All anyone can say for sure right now is that their attempt to chase down the Giants should be a lot of fun to watch.  The rest of the NL West looks at best to be mediocre.  The Arizona Diamondbacks have an excellent young pitching staff lead by Ian Kennedy and last years rookie of the year Wade Smiley.  With the acquisition of Brandon McCarthy, Daniel Hudson coming back from surgery, and two blue chip pitching prospects waiting in the wings this could be a really exciting staff to watch.  Unfortunately their lineup doesn't have the same quality.  And having traded top hitting prospect Trevor Bauer won't help that.  The San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies however will be hoping for .500 at best.  The Padres begin the year with their best player, Chase Headley, on the DL and the lineup is filled with young unproven players.  For the Rockies its pretty simple.  With all the injuries and setbacks last year, things can't get worse this year.  Plus they still had at least one all world player in Troy Tulowitzki.
The National League Central should once again this year be the Cincinnati Reds' to lose.  Joey Votto should be back to MVP form after his a slow recovery from injury that contributed to his difficult fall.  The acquisition of Shin-Soo Chu will provide an upgrade in on-base ability in the lead off hole.  And then theirs Jay Bruce.  Bruce has great power but strikes out a ton.  If he can get that even a little bit under control, Bruce could make the Reds offense almost unstoppable.  On the pitching front the Reds bring back one of last years best one-two starting combos in Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos.  And while it would have been awfully fun to see Aroldis Chapman in the starting rotation with his 100+ mph fastball, putting the Cuban Missile at the back end of a deep bullpen should make most opponents once again feel like they are playing eight inning games.  The St. Louis Cardinals will be looking for a return trip to the post season as well, but doing with with a few more questions than last year.  The Cardinals did little to improve their lineup over the off season.  They do however have on of the best hitting prospects in the majors in Oscar Taveras.  Where he will fit will be an issue though given that Tavaras is an outfielder and the Cardinals already have too many of those already.  There will also be questions on the pitching staff as well.  Matt Carpenter retired and Kyle Lohse has left for Milwaukee   While Adam Wainwright still leads a very strong staff, the injury issues surrounding Jamie Garcia along with those two losses could and should be the difference between strong and great.  For the Milwaukee Brewers things are fairly basic.  If Ryan Braun can put up his usual MVP numbers and avoid and trouble surrounding the Biogenesis scandal (i'll let you read up on that on your own time), and Lohse and Yovanni Gallardo can be stellar at the top of an otherwise average pitching staff, this team can challenge for a wild card.  But if the Biogenesis scandal blows up in Braun's face, it could be a long year for the Brewers.  The fourth team in the NL Central that could contend for a playoff spot is the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Their lineup is led by Andrew McCutchen, who is coming off an MVP caliber season, and Pedro Alverez who was a great surprise last year hitting thirty home runs.  Adding to those two talented young hitters is Brian McCann who will provide some great stability at catcher.  The Pirates pitching staff could be a regression candidate after getting some huge seasons from A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez.  But if those two can pitch well again this year and the Pirates stable of pitching prospects can move up to the majors this season, things could finally start looking up in Pittsburgh this year.  The Chicago Cubs should round out the bottom of the division this year without the Astros to sit below them.  There are some things to be happy about for the Cubs.  Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo look like the types of young players that could be the cornerstone of a bright future in an otherwise unimpressive lineup.  The pitching staff could be good this year for the Cubs though.  Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson are solid pitchers and once Matt Garza returns from the DL the starting rotation could look somewhere in the range of Damn Good.  But with the team in year two of the Epstein rebuilding plan it should be a tough year in an already tough division.
And now we come to the National League East.  The Washington Nationals appear to be so loaded I could probably spend a thousand words just on them.  So lets just focus on a few main points.  In the lineup there are three things to look at.  The addition off Denard Span provides a legit presence in the lead off spot.  Bryce Harper should be even better this year than he was last year.  And resigning Adam LaRoche kept a coveted big bat in the middle of their lineup.  On the pitching side there are two major happenings for the Nats.  Taking the innings count off of Stephen Strausburg should be some of the worst news in all of baseball for opposing hitters.  And the acquisition of Dan Haren to be the teams number four started should only help the team.  Haren may not be his former ace self, but he is still a valuable pitcher and will provide a great veteran leadership for this young team.  And now on to the rest of the division that will be chasing the Nationals.  The biggest threat to the Nationals will come from the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves boast one of the best young outfields in the game.  The acquired both of the Upton brothers in the off season.  The two of them alongside Jason Heyward will be a fierce outfield both offensively and defensively.  The real question for the Braves will come in their pitching for the maybe the first time in twenty years.  Can Kris Medlen be the elite pitcher he looked like at the end of last season?  Is Mike Minor ready to make a full time jump to the majors?  If the answers to these questions, as well as many others about the Braves pitching is yes, then the Braves will be a team that no one wants to play, just like normal.  Otherwise things could take a sharp turn back towards mediorcrity.  The Philadelphia Phillies are baseballs version of the Boston Celtics.  They are a team full of great veterans looking to hang on for one more ride.  They go into the season completely healthy.  But the age and health of all their star players will be the lynch pin of the teams success this year.  And if either start to rear their ugly heads it can all go wrong in a hurry.  But if the Rollins-Howard-Utley lineup and the Hamels-Lee-Halladay rotation can put it all together, even if it is just one more time, then anything might be possible.  But that's a lot of ifs and if any one of those players has problems it could all fall apart.  The New York Mets simply in need of a lot of help. They have David Wright and Ike Davis, who hit a very quiet 32 homers last year in the lineup.  But they also have an outfield that projects to be historically bad.  Their pitching staff would be intriguing and full of young promise if they had a true ace at the top of it.  But they don't.  Right now it seems like the Mets are just hoping that some of their young talent, at all positions, can come into its own around Wright.  But that is still looking towards the future and not the present.  And then there are the Miami Marlins.  After spending big last off season, they have completely blown up the team.  Their lineup is super-stud Giancarlo Stanton and an aging Juan Pierre and a bunch of guys who still probably need another year in the minors.  Their pitching staff, well, I think they're just hoping that one of these young guys works out.  Because there is just no established starter in the bunch.  It is rebuilding process no. 64651614650610684630 for the Marlins.
There you have it.  The American League is coming tomorrow.