college football preview

sports:  As I am writing this the first couple of college football games of the year have already come and gone on Thursday night.  It is time to look forward to the rest of the season and what it should have to offer us.  It is totally insane to think that anyone could cover all of college football in one article, and I have no intention of trying.  So I am going to just stick to some of what I think are the most exciting, interesting, and important points.
And what better place to start than some of the marquee match-ups of opening weekend.  Probably the two biggest games of the first weekend of college football are Michigan vs. Alabama at the billion dollar funhouse in Dallas and Boise St. on the road playing Michigan St.  The Michigan Alabama game is the bigger of the two match-ups, with two top ten non-conference teams playing each other to start the season.  Alabama comes into the game as a perennial National Championship contender.  Though they would still be considered one of the best teams in the country, their tough opening week game will show if that is going to remain true this year.  Alabama lost a lot of their dominant defense from last year to the draft as well as their Heisman finalist running back Trent Richardson.  For the first time under Nick Saban the question of whether their defense will be good or great does exist.  Also for the first time under Saban their best offensive player will be their quarterback, pocket passing A.J. McCarron.  How the Crimson Tide will do without a dominant runner will be something to watch.  As far as their opponent goes.  Michigan is coming into this game, and the season, on a mission to restore the program to prominence.  Coach Brady Hoke has turned the program around admirably from the debacle of the Rich Rodriguez era.  The defense is tough, and they arguably have the most dynamic player in college football in Denard Robinson.  For Michigan to take that next step from top ten team to title contender, Robinson will have to prove that his dual threat game is more than just excitement, that it is also a winning game.  In this opening week game we should see just how much both teams have to offer.  Michigan has not faced a team in the past couple of years with the pedigree of an Alabama.  And Alabama has never faced someone as dynamic as Robinson.  Whoever handles who better should tell us who is a true contender going forward.
The other big game of the opening weekend, Boise St. vs Michigan St. is the story of two teams looking to prove they still belong.  The Broncos have now graduated most of the players that are part of the winningest class of college football.  They are going to be looking to prove that they still belong amongst the elite programs in college football and weren't just a byproduct of getting some great players.  Michigan St. is looking to do the same after having lost their career passing leader, Kirk Cousins, to the NFL draft.  While the Spartan's defense should be as tough and physical as ever, that everlasting chip on the Bronco's shoulders will be tough to deal with.  This game ultimately comes down to finding out who belongs.  In a tough Big Ten where teams are sure to beat each other from time to time the Spartans are looking to show that they are still among the conferences best.  And if they win they will have shown they can be that.  If the Broncos win, they will have all but solidified themselves as a true program and the only true chaos team, now that TCU has moved to the Big 12.
Having more or less microscoped these two games as part of the bigger picture it is now time to take a look around the country in a broader sense.  Lets start with a conference hilighted in one of these two match-ups, and certainly the best in the country recently, the SEC.  Although conventional wisdom hasn't served well in the SEC, I am going to go their.  Alabama's flaws, or at least questions, have already been pointed out.  LSU has lost its star defensive player and emotional leader in Tyrann Mathieu due to off the field problems.  To think that they can simply overcome this by plugging some freshman stud, as some have conjectured, is insane.  Mathieu's production, both on defense and special teams, was just outrageous, and his way of turning momentum in LSU's favor can't be quantified with stats.  Arkansas has easily the best offense in the SEC, led by future first round pick, quarterback Tyler Wilson.  But their defense has had problems keeping top shelf oppenents like LSU from putting up enough points to keep up with them in the conference title race.  If the Razorback defense can make even a slight improvement while dealing with the coaching and administrative upheaval from coaching scandal over the summer(we'll call this the F you attitude factor), they could be the cream rising to the top of the best conference in football.  On the other side of the SEC, Georgia seems to be the heavy favorites.  They have most of their starters returning from a top twenty defense, not to mention Heisman hopeful Aaron Murray at quarterback, who is looking to for his third 3000 yard season.  If he can limit the mental errors, those killer fantasy stats should turn them into one of the more scary teams facing the rest of the country.  As these teams play each other, someone has to lose.  And that is where my conventional wisdom that seems to fail every year stands.  When great teams face each other someone still has to lose.
The Big Ten, also featured in this weekends big games, looks like a slightly less powerful SEC.  There are a ton of good teams but not one that should runaway with the conference.  The reason they are less powerful than the SEC is that unless someone does runaway with the conference no one appears to be a legit national title contender, whereas the SEC winner will more or less automatically be considered.  Michigan and Michigan St. clearly look to be in the mix for the conference title.  Wisconsin has its Heisman finalist running back from last year, Monte Ball, back and is hoping for another transfer quarterback, this time Danny O'Brien, to be the difference maker.  And despite their ineligibility for bowl games and a conference title, I would be remiss if I didn't mention that  Urban Meyer should bring massive improvement to Ohio State, where disappointment is the word that described their season last year. With the Buckeyes out of the picture though, it should be all about Michigan's defense and Robinson, potentially ascending from exciting to great, as the Wolverines prove to be the Big Ten's best team.  The Big Ten teams should not only hand each other losses as the season rolls on but should prove to be good but not quite the nations best.
The Big 12 is next, and they only have a few points to address.  Oklahoma is in the top five again.  And while their defense is going to be as fierce as ever, Landry Jones has yet to prove himself as more than a fantasy quarterback.  Sure he is the schools all time leading passer, but in crucial games and big moments, he has come up short.  He may be able to grow into that, but until he delivers all year, instead of most of the year, it is hard to get behind the Sooners.  The other big note in the Big 12 is that TCU is now there.  It is great for the Horned Frogs as they try to prove, like Boise St., that they belong in the discussion of the country's top teams.  For anyone out there who love chaos, it is terrible because there is one less legitimate non-power-conference team out there to muck up the works as other teams lose games.  But hopefully TCU will not only get the chance that they seem to deserve, but thrive in their new situation.  The other Big 12 contender could be new comer West Virginia.  Led by the hugely (and physically huge) talented Geno Smith, the West Virginia will be tough to stop no matter what conference they are in.  While stiffened competition should be a wake up call to this team, they should be able to out gun enough teams to put themselves in any discussion that involves the best of the best
Now onto the Pac 12.  This conference appears to be more or less a two teams race.  In the post-Andrew Luck era, Stanford should finish a very respectable third.  But this one should really come down to USC and Oregon.  The Trojans will be running out an offense with enough talent that every starting player should be in the NFL someday.  What they need is a defense that it is merely better than last year.  Not great but good, and able to stop the run, so that the offense can out score every other team in the nation, literally.  I know I said this about Arkansas, but it holds even more true for the Trojan offense led by Matt Barkley, who is not only the Heisman favorite but the projected top pick in the upcoming NFL draft.  For Oregon it is a little more simple.  Their fast as hell offense just needs to keep every single team they play on their heals until they totally run out of breath and give up.  The conundrum in this conference is that along with a regular season USC vs. Oregon game, they will have to play each other in the conference title game now that the conference is split into divisions.  To think that either team could win two games against the other is almost unimaginable considering their quality.
The conference with the best chance to produce an undefeated team may be the ACC.  Florida St. had the eighth ranked defense last year and should have a much improved offense led by quarterback E.J. Manuel.  With an offense that should catch up to their defense, and a conference where top tier teams shouldn't cancel each other out, the Seminoles have a great chance to get into the mix by the end of the season.  Their greatest resistance should be met from Clemson, though their defense, which allowed 70 in a bowl game last year, needs some some massive improvements in order to allow for their high flying offense to win more games for them.
If I had to make predictions before the season has really gotten started, I would probably go more or less chalk.  I would take USC and some SEC team in the title game and Matt Barkley edging out Marcus Lattimore, the running back from South Carolina, for the Heisman with Geno Smith making it interesting.  But we all know that upsets will happen and some player we hadn't really considered will come about, like Cam Newton and RGIII.  As I have looked up and down the conferences and teams their does certainly seem to be more questions than certainties.  Who comes out on top will be answered by which team answer those questions.  This year its not just about playing to your strengths but dealing with your weaknesses.