sports: My laziness seems to be a good omen for these basketball posts. My plan was to write this sometime last week as the NBA regular season approached its halfway point. That didn't happen and now the halfway has past by a game or two for most teams. And yet again, my laziness was rewarded with something significant happening that completely altered the way I view the league. First it was a one game late playoff preview that allowed me to comment on Derrick Rose's torn ACL, then it was waiting till the last possible second to do a season preview and getting to see the James Harden trade go down. This time it was the Rajon Rondo injury. And with that we begin with the East.
The Eastern Conference has been shaping up to be a lot more compelling than anyone thought. The Miami Heat are still the best team in the conference. Lebron James is still the best player in the league. He is leading is team to the best record in the East while putting up staggering numbers. He leads his team in points, assists, rebounds, and steals while shooting 55% from the field. This is on top of the fact that he has not missed a game after being the only player to play all 66 games last year and make a championship run and play in the Olympics. The team has been built around him in the fashion we saw in the Finals last year and thought they would play this year. Spreading the floor with stretch bigs and shooters spacing the floor while James either runs point or plays out of the post while Dwayne Wade slashes towards the basket on cuts. They have however shown signs of weakness. They are only 10-10 on the road, which could be cause for concern in the playoffs if they happen to slip up and lose one at home. The other area of concern for the Heat is that they have been a terrible rebounding team. The Heat have been so bad in fact that if nothing changes and they win the title they would qualify as the worst rebounding championship team ever if they were to go all the way again. While this was a concern last year and they still were champs, it is worth noting that there has actually been regression in this area that could cause problems especially against the other top teams in the east all of whom have very good rebounding bigs in their lineups(Noah, Garnett, Chandler, Hibbert, Smith and Horford).
Ok, now back to the Rondo injury. It was reported on Sunday that Rajon Rondo has torn his ACL and will miss the rest of this season. The Boston Celtics have certainly not been their typically stellar selves this year. They are under 500 as I write this and are currently eighth in the East. But with Rondo leading the league in assists and triple-double games he changes the potential narrative for this team. With the Celtics holding the eighth seed, they would be matched up against the Heat in the first round. Between the fact that Boston is not afraid of the Heat and the fact that Rondo is capable of going off for 40 points, up until yesterday this was a team that had the chance to pull an upset in the first round. The Celtics have not been a great offensive team for the past couple of years (they rank 25th in offensive efficiency this year), but without Rondo in the lineup the Celtics now appear to either be just another sacrificial bottom seed or a team that is going to blow up what they have by getting rid of their aging stars and looking towards the future by picking up as many expiring contracts as they can so that they can rebuild in the off season.
The way I see it there are two other real threats to Miami in the East. The first would be the New York Knicks. The Knicks are currently second in the East and playing as well as anyone could have hoped. Carmelo Anthony has put himself in the MVP discussion by accepting his role at power forward and really taking on the identity of James in Miami. Melo plays out of the post more now and uses a spread out of floor full of three point shooters to pass to if the defense collapses. The big difference in New York is that Tyson Chandler has continued to show that he is one of the best (if not the best) pick and roll center in the league. With his amazing 67% field goal percentage, he allows the Knicks to run a wildly effective pick and roll game when not going to Anthony in the post that centers around guards Ray Felton and Jason Kidd with Chandler rolling to the basket and the shooters lying in wait. Add to that efficient style of play that they have Melo to go to in late game situations to create on his own and you have a team that despite their slower pace and age is definitely for real. And if Amar'e Staudemire continues to accept his role as sixth man, things could get even better for the Knicks heading forward.
The other threat to Miami could be the Chicago Bulls. With Derrick Rose still out and a revamped supporting cast after losing a lot of their bench last season, Tom Thibideau has the Bulls in a place that very few expected them to be entering the year. They are atop the Central Division and in the three seed with Rose's return in sight. No one knows what Rose will look like when he returns, but with the emergence of new players like Jimmy Butler and Danillo Balinelli and the continued improvement of Luol Deng and Jokim Noah, there is certainly a lot of hope in Chicago. Thibideau has the team playing its usual elite defense while the offense continues to do enough to win. If Rose comes back anywhere his old form the production he will provide as well as taking some of the pressure of the players that are forced to carry heavier production than they are used to this team could be right back where they were when he go hurt last year: ready to take on the Heat for top dog status in the East. Most people, myself included, hoped the Bulls would tread water until Rose came back. With them doing more than that all bets are officially off.
There certainly are other teams in the East that have had good seasons. The Indiana Pacers are right back in the thick of things, chasing the Bulls for the top spot in the Central Division. The Atlanta Hawks have exceeded a lot of expectations with stellar team play on offense and a surprisingly great defense. The Brooklyn Nets have more than met expectations. Darron Williams has only gotten better as the season has progressed after a slow start and Brook Lopez has lived up to his new contract with an all-star level season. Each of these teams have issues though that could keep them from being legit contenders. Atlanta and Indiana both seem like they are still a player away offensively, both needing a scorer who can get to the free throw line with regularity. As far as the Nets go, I just am not willing to put my eggs in a basket led by someone like Williams who continues to get his coaches fired. I just can't bet on a team lead by a guy who is earning a reputation as a coach killer.
With the trade deadline approaching in a few weeks there is certainly a lot that can happen to change the complexion of the Eastern Conference. But right now it seems that Rondo's ACL tear has made this a three team race. While I still think that Miami is the best team in the conference and should emerge as its finals representative, there is one thing that could trip them up from both New York and Chicago. Neither of these teams should go into a series afraid of the Heat. Over the past few years, Rose's Bulls have shown that they can beat Miami, including a road win in Miami this year without Rose. His return should only bolster their confidence. The Knicks will also not be afraid, having already beat the Heat by more than twenty points twice this year, once in Miami. That was always the x-factor with Boston; they believed they could beat the Heat. Now there seem to be teams that believe they can do it in their place.
(part two: Western Conference coming tomorrow)
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