sports: Welcome to what is part one of the first two part post I have ever done. I have been thinking all day about starting my NFL preview on the eve of the first game of the season and realized that to cover all the teams in all eight divisions was just more than I could put myself through in one night without my head exploding. The decision to do the NFC first was made simply by the fact that I wanted that out before the Giants and Cowboys play tomorrow night since they are both in that conference and then I can hit the AFC before they start their games on Sunday. I really wish there was a more entertaining way to go at this, but this will be more or less a division by division breakdown with a few predictions thrown in there. So here we go.
We start with the NFC East since they kickoff the season. The Super Bowl defending New York Giants seem to be the most complete team in the division. With Eli Manning coming off of a career year and that defense, particularly the pass rush, looking as tough as usual, there is no reason to believe that success won't come their way. They still have Jason Pierre-Paul causing havoc on their defensive line rushing opposite Osi Umenyiora, which makes them the typically solid defense they are. On offense, despite losing Super Bowl hero Mario Manningham, Manning still has his top two recievers in Hakim Nicks and Victor Cruz. Their running game may struggle a bit after losing the thunder in Brandon Jacobs to Ahmad Bradshaw's lightening, but the run game should remain solid enough to allow for the passing game to get off. Not to mention that despite winning two Super Bowls in the past five years, the Giants have yet to have a truly great regular season, and with Tebow and the Jets eating up the New York press, maybe they have the incentive to prove they are still New Yorks best team. The Eagles, probably the Giants closest competition, have a lot to prove. Having come off a year where spectacular offseason signings were followed by inconsistancy and chemistry issues, they also have a lot to prove, but with them it is about meeting expectation, instead of reminding everyone that those expectations should be higher. Jeremy Maclin should prove to be the Eagles most consistant offensive weapon at running back. The defense should be improved having had a full year and camp to integrate its new players. The biggest questions should be whether or not Michael Vick can keep himself from getting hurt and play a full season. If he can't, this team has little chance to make waves. The other question is how the entire organization will respond to the death of head coach Andy Reid's son. Suffice to say, that is something that is impossible to go through without having ramifications on anyone near that situation. Everyone knows that Reid is a great coach and his players love him, but that is difficult situation. And how the team responds to it will be the difference. The Dallas Cowboys enter the season seemingly in the same place they have been for a few years now. People look at the talent of Tony Romo and Miles Austin and Dez Bryant (I'm not even getting into the insane rules he has to follow to keep himself out of trouble) and DeMarcus Ware on defense and believe that on paper they should be great. Then they underachieve. While that talent still remains, it is hard to believe after years of let downs that this year would be anything more than the same; a team knocking on the door and not knocking it down. Then there are the Redskins, having leveraged their future for RGIII (once again, not getting into it. I addressed this in an earlier post, if you want to know see here: http://robpoppost.blogspot.com/2012/03/rgiii-and-skins.html). Griffin should be thrilling, but ultimately shouldn't be enough to get this team to the top of its division, not on his own as a rookie. In the end there should be a lot of what has come to be expected from the NFC East. These highly competitive yet not dominant teams should beat each other up till a 10-6 or 9-7 team wins the division. That team should be the Giants.
Next we move to the South. Like in the East, this division should be led by a consistant yet not overpowering team, the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have a solid, if not potentially great, passing attack with Matt Ryan getting to throw to Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez, along with Jacquizz Rogers as a swing back. The always solid Michael Turner should provide enough as a straight ahead runner and goal line threat to balance the offense, giving Atlanta, as always, a chance to be very good. New Orleans, who has been the power in the South for a few years, have a lot working against them. Yes Drew Brees is electric with the football in his hands and probably good enough to run the offense even without Sean Peyton there. Yes the defense should be better under Steve Spagnuolo than it was under Greg Williams. But the personnel losses could be too much to take. Despite a better coach on defense, the Saints will be without there captain, Jonathan Vilma for the whole season due to the bountygate scandal. On offense they lost arguably Brees's most reliable weapon, Robert Meecham, as well as his all pro offensive lineman, Carl Nicks, to free agency. Nicks no less went to division rival Tampa Bay. Those personnel losses, combined with all the bounty drama may be too much for them to overcome. The sleeper in this division may be the Bucaneers. Tampa Bay has rid themselves of Raheem Morris, maybe the worst coach in football last year. Quarterback Josh Freeman comes into camp in much better shape than last year and with a few fun new additions to his offense. Carl Nicks protection should no doubt help Freeman have time in the pocket to make better decisions. The addition of Vincent Jackson as a receiver gives Freeman a go to pass catcher, and rookie running back Doug Martin should only make their running game, spearheaded by tough downhill runner LeGarrette Blount, more formidable. The Carolina Panthers will be looking to take steps forward with second year quarterback and record setter Cam Newton. While the Panthers should improve. The popular notion that they should compete for a playoff spot, however, should not ring true. Their defense just isn't that good. And quite frankly neither is Newton. In the fourteen games following his fantasy explosion, (over 800 yards passing in his first two weeks in the NFL) he averaged less than 250 yards per game. While the Panthers should be a team on the rise, this is not the year that they make that leap. The rock solid Falcons have the best chance to win the division. The revamped, bounce back team of the year, the Bucs, I think will take second and a wild card spot. The Saints will have trouble overcoming the loss of good players along with their bad mojo. And in New Orleans, you know mojo matters. As for Carolina, a team of the future, that future is not now.
The NFC West shall be our next division. They are lead by the San Fransisco 49ers. This team seems to be a popular pick to not follow up on their success from last season. I think I see it differently. Jim Harbaugh will have his first full off season to work with a team that was as solid and mistake free as anyone in the league last year.The defense astoundingly returns all eleven starters from what was the top defense in the league last year. And their offense should be comparable if not better. With addition of Randy Moss as a potential deep threat to compliment Vernon Davis and the aforementioned Giants loss, Mario Manningham, as a reliable receiver should improve the passing attack, which under Alex Smith was one of the most conservative in the NFL last year. The 49ers have lost feature back Frank Gore and have replaced him with situational back Brandon Jacobs. As long as the revamped passing attack works out the way Harbaugh is hoping, Jacobs should compliment the offense nicely with his power game. The Seahawks appear to be the only other competitive team in the west. With them things seem to be pretty simple. Their defense is solid. They seem to have the best home field advantage in football with their deafening stadium. The only questions are whether or not Pete Carroll is as good a pro coach as he was in college. And if Russell Wilson, as a rookie, is the right choice to be the starter for a team with playoff hopes. And by the way, I am rooting for Wilson. After a year watching him at Wisconsin, I just like the way he plays. The Rams and Cardinals will in all likelihood be playing for high draft picks. Under Jeff Fischer, and hopefully with a healthy Sam Bradford, the Rams should be better than last year. But not anywhere near contention. Under Fischer, and given time, they will get there. But not yet. And the Cardinals find themselves in the unenviable position of having the most talented wide receiver in football in Larry Fitzgerald and a quarterback battle in which they like neither of their choices. Until they find someone who can get the ball in the air and take advantage of having Fitzgerald, the best we can say is that Patrick Peterson should be exciting again in coverage and returning kicks. Look for the 49ers to more or less repeat their success from last year.
And finally we get to what might be the best division in the conference, the NFC North. The Packers, well there really isn't much to say. The Packers bring back a devastatingly great offense lead by Aaron Rodgers, who might be the best quarterback in the league. He also still have more weapons to throw to than possibly anyone in the league. If their defense can limit the yards they gave up last year (as the worst in the league in that category, ever) even a little and get back to their ball hawking ways, they should be the Super Bowl front runners. The Bears look to be the Packers biggest competition. They return with a stout defense, a trademark in Chicago. Jay Cutler is healthy. He has more comfort at wide receiver. Along with former college roommate Earl Bennett, Cutler will also be throwing to his former go to stud in Denver, Brandon Marshall. Matt Forte is back after an injury and contract dispute to gain as many all purpose yards as he can as the best pass catching back in the NFL, and with Michael Bush added to the running game, the load on Forte should lighten, keeping him both fresh and healthy. The question for the Bears is all about health. Can Cutler stay healthy. Can Matt Forte return and play a full season. And can a defense, that has been great throughout the years, stay healthy for yet another year as they only get older. Last years beneficiaries of the Bears injury problems, the Detroit Lions, are looking to keep the good times rolling. After being the doormat of the league for basically its entire existence, the Lions looked like the next big thing last year. They should not be expected to revert to form. But with basically no running game putting all the pressure to produce on Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Titus Young, along with a growing list of both injuries and arrests on defense, it is hard to believe that the Detroit can recreate the success they had last year. They will continue to build on that success, assuming Stafford can stay healthy, just not when there are so many factors working against them in such a tough division. And the Vikings.... Oh I think it is only fair to say that with a still developing Christian Ponder, and Adrian Peterson trying to do his best Superman immitation by coming back for week one after a torn ACL and MCL, not to mention the brutally tough group of teams in their division, it will be another year to look at the draft and look forward to rebuilding to a brighter future. The Pack are runaway favorites to win. The Bears get that other wild card spot.
Preseason predictions in the NFL are always tough being that they are mostly built on the assumption that no one gets hurt, but here it goes for the NFC. You have my division and wild card winners. Packers and 49ers get the buy weeks. The Bears and Giants come out of wild card weekend to face the 49ers and Packers respectively (the Bears get that seed based on their better regular season record despite not winning the division.) Then we get the apocalypse. Bears vs. Packers for the NFC. While the Packers are clearly the better team, a confident Cutler and rough and tough defense could be the difference, but in a rivalry game it is too hard to tell. All bets will be off, but in the end the best QB in the game comes through. Packers are in. To find out how the AFC will do and what my final predictions will be (since they are of course right), check it out tomorrow when I round out the league.
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